To Vote Or Buy A Lotto Ticket, That Is The Question

Well the answer is pretty obvious, you should buy a lotto ticket.  Since your one vote will only matter if all the others who vote happen to add up to a tie or one vote difference in favor of the candidate you don't like, and the chances of that in a large election are virtually zero, there is no real likelihood that your vote makes any difference at all. With the electoral college system the voters in your state would have to tie AND the electoral college outcome would have to be so close that your state would matter.  Apparently if you live in Ohio you have a chance for that this year.  The odds against winning the super ball lotto may be long, but they can't be as long as the chance that your one vote will matter.

Oh, does this rub you the wrong way?  Were you actually planning to vote?  Well so was I and I still am - though it makes NO sense.

But what has me musing tonight at about 3:30 AM is that this year it seems that the campaigns have become much more cognizant of how the electoral college works, or if in fact they have always targeted the "battle ground states", this is the first time the media have covered that fact so thoroughly.  Every time that we hear that it is Ohio and a few others that really matter we are being reminded of the insignificance of our own vote.  In other words we are being reminded of the unhappy truth of the first paragraph over and over again.  What is rational is for the campaigns to get out the vote of their candidate's constituency in those states where the outcome is uncertain and where the electoral votes are enough to effect the outcome.  It is thought to be good for the country for everyone to vote so that there is a sense that the outcome really reflects the choice of the population.  The election is given legitimacy.  But with the new sophistication of the campaigns, or the media, whichever it is, will the rational behavior of the campaigns tend to reduce voter turn out in the future?  That is really the question I'm musing over tonight.

Oh yes, and if you are reading this blog you're financial condition is probably such that you could not possibly miss a dollar a week out of you disposable income.  This makes it completely rational to buy a lotto ticket though the chance of winning is disappearingly small.