Listen to the Consenants Man!

At 11:30 PM on Thanksgiving Day my wife and I were standing in a line outside the local Windows store waiting for Black Friday where we were about to score a $40 case for my new Surface computer, for free.  We were two of about 60 people in line and as we waited a fellow came out of the store with a bag full of T shirts to give to as many of us as possible.  They bore the colored four flags Windows logo.  As he worked his way up the line he repeated several times that unfortunately he mostly had only two sizes, small and Excell.  I didn't get what in the world he meant, but when he got to me it turned out he did have a large and I was glad to receive it. As I did I asked him to repeat what the other sizes were.  Again he said, "mostly small and Excell." 

I said, "Let me look" and then I saw that sure enough, mostly what he had were Smalls and XL's.

This morning as I got dressed for my workout class I found on the top of the T shirt pile in my dresser drawer, my new Windows shirt.  Its turn in the rotation had arrived and I was glad because I planned to stop by the Windows store after exercising to ask some questions about my Surface.  I was fully prepared to show my new T shirt should the opportunity arise.  I thought it might help make things go well.  Well, I got to the store and got to my business.  At a certain point we were going over the particulars of my purchase of the Surface two weeks earlier and the fellow asked me if I had got a shirt.  I was ready for that.  "Yes, I did get a shirt!"  I said proudly, opening my coat to reveal same. 

The guy looked at me kind of funny like and said,  "No.  What I asked was, 'Did you get Assurance - when you bought your computer?'"  Assurance is the name they have for the insurance one can buy against damage to one's new play thing.

"No,"  I said, closing my coat.

Prostate Cancer

I've got it.  I've known for about a year and a half.  Here are some facts.

Most forms of PC are very slow growing.
There are a handful of ways to measure the severity or threat of PC and in my case all such measures are low.
In the last year or so the medical community has, to say the least, lost enthusiasm for  a common screening test and some authorities now discourage routine testing. It is considered most likely that a person will die with the disease rather than from it.
There are several treatments options available in addition to simply monitoring the cancer.
I know a number of guys who have had success with seed implantation and I have available to me a radiologist with a lot of experience and apparent competence.
All options carry a risk of  negative side effects including urinary and/or bowel incontinence, and impotency.  These are of variable severity and duration.  If your luck is bad you could be permanently affected.
Death from PC is painful.
If one has radioactive seed implantation and later the cancer returns, neither surgical removal of the prostate or another application of seeds is possible.  I believe you just have to go down with the disease.
I am 74 years old and prideful regarding my good health.
My grandfather, (the one who didn't get hit by a streetcar while in a state of uncertain sobriety) lived into his 90's as did my father and aunt.
My mother ended her life virtually comatose for a long time with Alzheimer's.

In the light of these facts I am faced with deciding what to do,  Should I get some seeds or should I just monitor the situation and see what develops? The first insight that came to me as I began to consider these choices was just how much I have been expecting, planning and wanting to live into my mid 90's.  At the same time I worry about ending like my mom.

One can think of a number of reasons for delaying treatment.  The more the delay, the less time after treatment for a new cancer to appear. (The cause(s) of PC is (are) apparently unknown.)  The situation is full of uncertainties.  I think I need some additional information even though some of it is only of a probabilistic nature.    What are the chances of a recurrence of the disease if it is successfully treated?  Does delaying treatment decrease the chance of success and if so how does the chance of success relate to age, tumor size, and general health?  Does the probability of serious side effects increase with age?  Are there better treatments on the horizon?  Since I think dying from cancer is much better than lingering with dementia, if dementia is in my future, I'll be glad I have the cancer.  It will save me the trouble of blowing my brains out.

To Vote Or Buy A Lotto Ticket, That Is The Question

Well the answer is pretty obvious, you should buy a lotto ticket.  Since your one vote will only matter if all the others who vote happen to add up to a tie or one vote difference in favor of the candidate you don't like, and the chances of that in a large election are virtually zero, there is no real likelihood that your vote makes any difference at all. With the electoral college system the voters in your state would have to tie AND the electoral college outcome would have to be so close that your state would matter.  Apparently if you live in Ohio you have a chance for that this year.  The odds against winning the super ball lotto may be long, but they can't be as long as the chance that your one vote will matter.

Oh, does this rub you the wrong way?  Were you actually planning to vote?  Well so was I and I still am - though it makes NO sense.

But what has me musing tonight at about 3:30 AM is that this year it seems that the campaigns have become much more cognizant of how the electoral college works, or if in fact they have always targeted the "battle ground states", this is the first time the media have covered that fact so thoroughly.  Every time that we hear that it is Ohio and a few others that really matter we are being reminded of the insignificance of our own vote.  In other words we are being reminded of the unhappy truth of the first paragraph over and over again.  What is rational is for the campaigns to get out the vote of their candidate's constituency in those states where the outcome is uncertain and where the electoral votes are enough to effect the outcome.  It is thought to be good for the country for everyone to vote so that there is a sense that the outcome really reflects the choice of the population.  The election is given legitimacy.  But with the new sophistication of the campaigns, or the media, whichever it is, will the rational behavior of the campaigns tend to reduce voter turn out in the future?  That is really the question I'm musing over tonight.

Oh yes, and if you are reading this blog you're financial condition is probably such that you could not possibly miss a dollar a week out of you disposable income.  This makes it completely rational to buy a lotto ticket though the chance of winning is disappearingly small.